Research Report: The Study into Effect of Basic Materials Modification (Using Carbon Nanotubes) on Reduction of Global Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions
This paper has been prepared by the Centre for Energy Efficiency XXI century (CENEf-XXI) on order of OCSiAl.ru for study into effect of basic materials modification using CNT on reduction of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. In the paper, this effect was estimated on the basis of reduced demand for basic materials through enhancement of consumer properties of modified (doped) basic materials, as well as on the basis of reduced demand for fuel combustion through operation of light-weight vehicles (motor cars and aircraft).
All the key results of this paper are summarised in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 describes the role of basic materials in the development of the global economy, shows very-long-term (over 115 years) and current trends of the past 40 years, growth drivers of material use and their relative importance; it shows that for the climate stabilisation purposes, mankind should learn to make use of materials using half as much of the physical volume of such materials.
Chapter 3 shows the role of energy consumed for production and transportation of materials in the global energy balance, considers the concepts of direct and indirect energy consumption, as well as the concept of embodied (materialised) energy; it shows that the potential for energy saving in production of materials is not exhausted but limited; the Chapter also contains data on embodied energy consumed for production of basic materials.
Chapter 4 estimates greenhouse gas emissions from production, transportation, and use of basic materials; shows historical data on greenhouse gas emissions by economic sectors; considers concepts and estimates direct, indirect, and embodied GHG emissions.
Chapter 5 provides the long-term forecasts for global anthropogenic GHG emissions up to 2100, which serve as a basis for estimating the effect of basic materials modification (using CNT) on reduction of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and shows the main factors affecting their trends.
Chapter 6 selects, from the variety of basic materials production forecasts, the 'baseline' forecasts with up to 2100 horizon corresponding to the most probable trend of their production. There are a lot of very-long-term forecasts for a number of materials and practically no forecasts for other materials. For such cases, CENEf-XXI has developed its own forecasts using the data on trends in specific consumption of materials per capita or per unit of GDP, as well as saturation factors, resource limitation and other limitations.
Data on reduced demand for basic materials modified with CNT has been received based on the analysis of a wide range of literary sources. This data is summarised in Chapter 7.
Chapter 8 examines the possibilities of reducing the global GHG emission for the period until 2100 in production of individual basic materials through reduction in materials intensity while increasing the strength and other properties of materials through doping with CNT. The examinations were conducted on the basis of dedicated mathematical models. The additional volume of GHG emissions for SWCNT production was also examined. Apart from the effects at the stage of basic materials production, effects may be brought about at the stage of light-weight products operation. This paper will focus on effects from motor cars and aircraft.
Finally, Chapter 9 summarises the forecast results of possible contribution of increased use of CNT for doping of certain materials to reduction of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, estimates the role of this technology versus the long-term contribution of other technologies, and analyses sensitivity of results to the assumptions made in the paper.